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ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY OUTAGE PROBABILITY TABLE (COPT): A CASE STUDY OF AFAM THERMAL POWER STATION, NIGERIA

Authors: Okakwu I.K, Olabode O.E, Ade-Ikuesan O.O, Oluwasogo E.S, Osifeko M.O

ABSTRACT

Power generation model is a basic criterion for generation system reliability assessment, and one of such models is capacity outage probability table. Capacity outage probability table is a good indicator that determines the future capacity expansion in a bid to ensure that the plants’ total installed capacity is adequate to provide uninterrupted electricity as required by the end-users. This paper presents a probabilistic approach and analytical approach to Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT) using: a case study of Afam thermal power station, Nigeria. The results of the analysis showed that as the number of unit outage increases, the capacity outage (MW) also increases while capacity available (MW), individual state probability and cumulative probabilities decreases.


Affiliations: Department of Electrical/Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria
Keywords: Afam Thermal Power Station, Capacity Available, Capacity Out, Capacity Outage Probability Table, Individual State Probability
Published date: 2018/06/30

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ISSN: 2635-3342 (Print)

ISSN: 2635-3350 (Online)

DOI: In progress

ISI Impact Factor: In progress

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Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Benin, PMB 1154, Ugbowo, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria.