Probabilistic Long-Term Energy Consumption Forecast in Nigeria: Ado-Ekiti as a Case Study
Authors: Ade-Ikuesan OO, Omotoso OO, Osifeko MO, Okakwu IK, Alao PO
Load forecast is very important in the energy industry. Deterministic energy consumption forecast has a lot of limitations since it does not take care of randomness and uncertainties. This study employs probabilistic energy consumption forecast in Ekiti State using standard normal distribution as a tool. It focuses on the energy consumption in Ekiti State using the available data from Benin Electricity Distribution Company (BEDC), Ado-Ekiti office. The study shows energy consumption in the state has a tendency of rising above 8601.5MWh (the maximum for year 2017) by 4.65% in 2018. It was established that the probability of the energy consumption falling below 4970MWh is 8.38%. The consumption of energy in year 2018 in the state may fall between 4970MWh and 8601.5MWh monthly at a probability of 86.97%. Energy consumption in year 2018 will mostly fall between 5500MWh and 8000MWh particularly. It is unlikely it falls between 3500MWh and 4000MWh (0.98%) and 9000MWh and 9500MWh. The result of this work can be used by stakeholders in the power industry for planning activities.
Affiliations: Department of Computer Engineering, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Nigeria.
Keywords: Energy Consumption Forecast, Probabilistic Forecast, Deterministic Forecast, Energy Planning, BEDC
Published date: 2018/12/30